The following three descriptive models are conceptual starting points for considering the pressures that the Silver Wave will put on the welfare system.

• The hundred-year flood: The Silver Wave can be likened to a coming flood, a finite surging and receding of demographic, financial, and social pressures. In this situation, is it better to prepare for a one-year flood, a ten-year flood, or a hundred-year flood? With short-term preparation, in the case of the one-year flood, one risks being swept away by a larger swell. Preparation for the hundred-year flood creates risks of bankruptcy through excessive expenditure. Should the Silver Wave be considered a temporary challenge to the welfare system—however long in duration—that will eventually recede? How can solutions be scaled up and down accordingly?
• The Rise in Sea Level: If the surge is not temporary, it may be likened to a permanent rise in sea level. The changes demanded by such an event would imply the occurrence of deep and permanent paradigm shifts. Is it constructive to view the ageing issue as demanding a permanent paradigm shift that will irrevocably alter the structure of the welfare system? If so, how does one prepare a system for such a dramatic structural realignment?
• The Perfect Storm: Perhaps the Silver Wave represents the incredibly unlikely confluence of a number of different powerful variables, one that may be compared to a perfect storm descending upon the Nordic Model. While it may be unreasonable and even impossible to adequately prepare for such a scenario, the severity of its potential effects demand that it be considered and that preparations be made. Is it meaningful to cast the challenges of the Finnish welfare state in such a drastic light? (One where the only option is to prepare for the total replacement of the welfare system?) If so, how does one design a new system and still retain aspects of existing system?

Source: HDL Challenge Briefing on Ageing 1.0